You may have already noticed that serious gambling is not necessarily a simple task. It is very important to build the mindset that leads you to believe that it is a game that depends on the odds, and that you must be very good to really profit. To help you with your betting strategies, we separate two concepts, the Kelly Criterion and the Fibonacci Strategy to help you. For the situs poker online terbesar this is important.
Kelly Criterion
How many percent of your bankroll should you bet in order to maximize your winnings? That is the answer that the Kelly Criterion aims to answer.
Once you have identified an odd in which the advantage really lies for the bettor, you will use the following formula to determine what percentage of the bank you should bet on:
- Amount to bet (in%) = {[Odd * (Estimated probability / 100) – 1] / (Odds – 1)} * 100
If we go back to the example above, in which the odd assigned to the face is 2.22 and we know that the real probability of the event happening is 50%, we have the following resolution:
- Stake (%) = {[2.22 * 850/100) – 1] / 2.22 – 1} * 100
- Stake (%) = {0.11 / 1.22} * 100 = 9.02%
The big question here is that in sports betting you will not know the exact probability, there is no way to know. And it is precisely here that you must beat the bookmakers, the professionals who calculate the odds of the bookmakers, just so that your betting strategies will work.
The Kelly Criterion enters your betting strategies as a factor that will determine the percentage of your bankroll that should go on that bet. This is important to decrease your chances of breaking your bankroll and consequently losing money. It is a way to protect your funds from emotion-driven moves.
Fibonacci Strategy
If you still don’t know the Fibonacci sequence, welcome to one of the most classic knowledge in human history.
This sequence is quite simple and each term of it corresponds to the sum of the previous 2 numbers: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89 and so on.
Applying to the world of betting, we find the following sequence for those who started with a bet of R $ 10.00.
However, it is necessary to follow some recommendations:
- Always bet on the same type of market (always in draws, for example)
- Odds must always be above 2,618
You move on to the next term only when you lose a bet. This system can cause strangeness at first, however, even if you lose the gains, you will certainly be able to cover what you have lost so far. For this technique to be effective, especially with a lot of games going on at the same time, it is interesting to choose a team and accompany it through the tournament.
